118> GM and Segway’s Unintentional Dual Mode Platform

As many of you know, I have never been a big fan of dual mode.  The problem is simple.  If a vehicle is light enough to be part of an effective elevated PRT system, it is too light to be a robust road vehicle.  Conversely, if it is sturdy and comfortable enough to not seem ridiculous as a car, it would require a track that would be unacceptably massive and costly.  You tend to either have a bad car or bad PRT or both. Yet if you thread the needle just right, they are off by tantalizingly little . Lithium based batteries, ever-shrinking computing power, carbon fiber technologies and miracle plastics are nudging things forward, but what is needed is something really dramatic.  Something to knock off half of the weight form the start. 

The other day I was thinking about all of this, or at least how to transport people that last mile.  I was considering bicycles, scooters, and Segways, and wishing for something that would have a roof to keep the rain out.   I was even considering what technology would be involved in matching PRT to a Segway, instead of the other way around.  I even have a picture to prove it.  

It was around then that I decided to do an image search for a rain-proof Segway, and I stumbled onto something that had passed beneath my radar when I first heard about it.  It is the EN-V concept car, which, as it turns out, which may well be the “best-yet” dual mode platform.  It is a joint venture between GM and Segway, and it does two things that really reduce the weight problem.  First of all, it runs on two wheels instead of four.  Roadworthy tires and wheels are heavy, after all, especially if you include durable shocks and springs.  This vehicle also lacks a mechanical steering wheel and all associated linkages.  Like the ULTra, it is self-navigating, or at least, “drive by wire.”  That brings up the intriguing notion of having the vehicle drive itself back to the station after dropping off a passenger.  The side-by-side, two-wheel arrangement enables steering without any pivot assembly, and also allows 360 degree rotation in place, something that might add considerable flexibility in station design.  

The relationship between the EN-V and PRT seems symbiotic: PRT can’t go the “last mile”, and the EN-V can’t go all that far.  The EN-V’s shortcomings in speed and battery life could be rectified by an electrified track.  Equally promising is that the EN-V weighs in at under 500 kg, and that is for a version with a much bigger battery and motor than would be required for dual mode use.  Also, as long-time readers well know, I have my doubts about how good of a PRT vehicle can be designed and constructed by any fledgling company without seriously deep pockets for R&D.  GM and Segway have dumped a lot of money and knowhow into this project.  They have based the vehicle on what they call the “Puma” platform, which is literally just that… a versatile, self-balancing platform slung between two wheels.   

I really think this combination deserves some serious consideration, more than I have time for within the context of a single post.  Look forward, therefore, to more on this subject in days to come.

Here are some related videos: This short clip shows the “Puma” platform without the passenger compartment. 

This second video shows a bare-bones version in action as well as a simulation of a city street designed for using the vehicle as an ULTra-like PRT.

The EN-V comes in three flavors, as shown in action in these vids.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fyIGp2qrmw

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCGUmsdMifo&NR=1

117> Snow Day Musings

Well, we’re having a snow day in Houston…Well not really a snow day, actually it is an ice day. The buses are not running. Everyone is being advised to stay home. At the moment, all of the freeways are closed. It seems like a good moment to curl up with a warm laptop, and tap out some thoughts about this epic winter.

Being a mere six hours from Mexico, we are not well prepared for these kinds of weather events. We have no salt trucks or snowplows, but yesterday a truck preemptively applying a deicing solution caused a great traffic jamb, of which I was a part. It did no good.

It boggles the mind to think of the calamity that these weather systems are causing across the US (and Europe?) this year. In the last one, there were even fatalities in New York because ambulances couldn’t make it through. Enough, already! Is this really the best we can do?

The ongoing recession should serve as a “teachable moment” that illustrates the effects of a few percentage points of reduced economic activity. Clearly, these weather events must work against our collective well-being, event though we may not make the association.  Such shutdowns further compound the wasted productivity caused by simple traffic, illustrated in the chart below.

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Being paralyzed like this should point out the consequences of having all of our transportation “eggs in one basket.” For example, the rise of radical Islam makes me wonder if anyone has really considered what would be the effect of a sustained campaign of sabotage against road-based travel in a modern society. After all, a single disabled vehicle can nearly freeze a whole highway. Imagine the effect of terrorists simply targeting the tires of moving vehicles on a continuing basis… or even traffic lights for that matter. (I’m glad my readership is a very small and constructive group, or I would not share such notions)

There is also the warm weather counterpart to the “snow day,” which is street flooding. PRT systems can be specifically designed with this in mind. As ridiculous as it sounds, many urban areas around the world are built on floodplains. What would have been, for example, the result of a PRT system in New Orleans? If predictions of climate scientists are correct, we are in for lots of major weather events of all types in years ahead.

Anyway, my point is that society has reached a point of unprecedented interdependency, and is very vulnerable to any disruption in travel. These are not the days when everyone had canned leftovers from their large gardens and a cord of firewood on hand. If our transportation stops, our means of survival (and escape) does too.

Astute reader Lars Endre recently referred to raised PRT as exploiting “the virgin third dimension.” I love the phrase. It occurs to me, however, that it is not really virgin at all, at least around here. Here we have lots of spaghetti-like highway interchanges that are many stories tall. The interesting thing is that these forays into that third dimension are the very reason this city has drawn to a halt. Raised roadways and overpasses freeze first. We have many miles of raised HOV (High Occupancy Vehicle) lanes, connected to “Park and Ride” parking lots. Our embryonic light rail system continues to work, but nobody can get to the stations.

Too bad we can’t exploit the nice dry undersides that such elevated structures enjoy. Oh wait… We can! Yes, it’s the underside of that virgin third dimension that offers the possibility of completely weatherproof transportation. (You knew I would turn this into a shameless plug for suspended PRT sooner or later, right?) 

While we're talking about snow, although this is a bit off-topic, I would like to take this opportunity to mention the troublesome act of repeatedly salting roads. It reminds me of the age-old notion of dumping waste into the ocean or atmosphere because “It’s just so darn big that it can’t be hurt.” We know better now, but we continue to salt the earth on a mega-industrial scale. (10 million tons per year in the US, which works out to 66 lbs. annually per person) It works its way downward, eventually, to the water table, where it migrates “away.” Some readers may have seen these structures along roadways and not known what they are. They are structures for storing all of that road salt. I only wish PRT could solve this dilemma too.  

Finally I just thought I would share these pics that I happened upon. As you can see, the need to remove snow from our 2D transportation systems is not confined to just roadways.

Well it’s a day later and the sun is shining and the roads are clear once again. Time for me to wrap this up…

PRT cannot mean an end to roads or the costs of maintaining them. There still will be the need to move heavy loads, that last mile problem, and the whole countryside beyond. But an extensive, all-weather PRT network could, in times of crisis, be a very important backup system to have. We sure could have used it yesterday.   

 

116> Parkin' On the Hill...

This post is in response to comments made regarding the last one. In order to illustrate my points, I have used a modified version of the following picture, which I had originally intended to use in a different manner, so even though it is a bit off-topic, let me start with an explanation this illustration first.

This picture is the result of a design exercise, the object of which was to create the highest capacity station possible with the smallest footprint. In order to do this, I used elevators with curved doors, so that they can retract without needing much space in the walls. There are two of them, one for entering and one for exiting the station. This station is not “off-line,” but would rather be bypassed by a track that is not shown. Four cars can be loading while four are unloading, and (guessing a time of thirty seconds to get seated and on your way) the capacity of the station would be one car per 7.5 seconds, which works out to 480 vehicles per hour. It was designed to be ADA compliant, yet has a footprint of only about 50 square ft. One thing to think about is that if 8 of these stations where operating at capacity, the track they would be feeding would need sub-second headways to handle the passenger load. A station like this would be factory-built and delivered to the site in several pieces. Obviously the design is a bit misplaced in this setting, which isn’t exactly downtown, (so a footprint small enough for a crowded sidewalk isn’t really needed) but I had no other jpeg to “shop” the model into.

This leads me to the next picture, which shows a two-way variation of the same station. In this one, each elevator handles both arriving and departing passengers, with one elevator being for each direction. I drew this in response to alert reader Lars Endre, who suggested the possibility of using sloping track to capture the energy lost in deceleration. While this would be impractical for most PRT designs, it’s a concept that is well suited to self-leveling, hanging systems. The idea rests on the recognition that it takes a great deal of energy to get a vehicle up to speed and that it wastes a lot of kinetic energy to get it to stop. Parking atop a hill, so to speak, addresses both issues. This picture shows such an arrangement.

An alternative (frequently mentioned) approach to the problem is regenerative braking. As the vehicle slows, the momentum of the vehicle turns the wheels, which rotates the motor faster than it wants to go. This turns the motor into a generator and a brake at the same time, and the power is fed back into the track to be reused elsewhere. Sounds good when you say fast. I am not, personally, completely sure that this is an efficient process that is practical to exploit, what with electrical transmission losses, etc., especially with minor voltage supplementation in a DC system. 

Regenerative braking raises another fundamental question. How much braking do you want to do? After all, if the system is smart enough, it ought to have vehicles coasting more and braking less, right? The problem boils down to the need for speed. To some, it is assumed that assumed that PRT has a natural speed limit. Studies have shown that as speed increases, the safe spacing between vehicles must increase as well. Thus a system with a densely populated track going slower could move more people than one with faster, more widely spaced vehicles. The problem with those studies is a glaring fault in logic. It assumes that nothing can improve braking ability or crashworthiness of the vehicles. Fix that and you can both pack them tighter and go faster. But then we need brakes, and must deal with those mechanical inefficiencies. Consider the off ramp leading to a station. Making the split-off ultra gradual and giving a very long lead-up track is not very practical. 

 

Here is a different angle to show more track. While my first instinct was to think that raising the boarding area was a waste of materials, I soon realized that this cost could be offset by allowing shorter on/off ramps. Obviously this is more of an attractive option for fast, densely populated systems than for slower ones with few vehicles.

Another consideration is the “Umbrella Effect,” where overhead structures block the sky, a concern for landowners along the route. While this is less of a concern for minimalist track systems like I advocate, in a bi-directional station like the one shown there is still a lot of track up there, as can be seen. (Imagine the ULTra track four lanes wide!)  Long acceleration lanes represent additional visual obstruction. If raising the station can shorten these ramps, that would seem to be a plus for public acceptance as well as cost.  Even the station itself would appear somewhat less imposing by being higher, as more light would get in beneath it, and individual areas would remain shaded for less time. 

Astute reader Andrew F further pointed out that in tight turns, a sloping track could also be used to “bleed off” speed. (and give it back again after the turn) There are plenty of tight turns in a city environment, so this is something to consider. The negatives here are about ride quality, the way the system looks, the extra engineering, etc. Clearly, going very fast downtown would require a system that would be designed like a roller coaster, and I doubt we really want to go that far. On the other hand, in a system fast enough for commuting from the suburbs, there will always be the interface into the slower urban environment, just like freeway exits feeding downtown streets. Such an approach should certainly be in the toolbox. The case for using slopes to slow or speed a vehicle naturally arises, I believe, from the fact that it is so easy to do, considering that the track is raised anyway and the vehicles are designed to handle slopes and turns with minimal discomfort to the rider.

115> Swing Low, Sweet PRT...

Sometimes a technology pops up out of the blue that unexpectedly solves stumbling blocks that have been around for years. In this case I will refer the reader to the 3-axis accelerometer, a nifty little device that you probably own a few of. Own a car? There’s probably one in the airbag controller. Own a digital camera? Probably one there too, to help you take a clear shot with shaky hands. Got a smart phone? That’s how that nifty feature that keeps the screen upright works. Game controllers. The Segway. The list goes on.

What I am exited about is how the device can operate as a level, a feature that was exploited to create the iPhone app above. You see, because gravity and acceleration are essentially interchangeable, an accelerometer senses gravity as constant acceleration. Zero this force out with software, and your accelerometer senses “acceleration” every time you tip it in any direction… a thousand times a second.  Voila! A level! Or actually, to be more precise, an inclinometer!

Meanwhile, in the world of motion control, engineers are redesigning the electric motor. In the old days, it was realized that rather than putting bunches of electromagnets in a large circular array to make a motor, just a few would do, if the rotation were faster. That way, the same magnets could come around and around again, faster. More power, less materials. Magic! Only problem was that many people didn’t want fast rotation, and a century’s worth of bulky and inefficient reduction gearboxes ensued. Recently, a revolution has been taking place in the world of motors, the conversion from mechanically switching the electromagnets off and on (brushed motor) to using an external controller. Now, rather than simply rotating at a given speed, motors can be made to stop, change speed, reverse, hold a position, etc. The modern servomotor has been born.

Now a new generation of brushless, direct-drive motors is emerging which return to large diameter magnet arrays for torque, rather than gearboxes. These offer powerful and accurate rotational control without requiring that a machine be designed around standard gearboxes and motor mounts. I am referring, specifically, to frameless torque motors, which have reduced this architecture down to a simple pair of concentric rings. They are simply inserted between the machine and the shaft to be turned, like a bushing or ball bearing unit.

So here’s how it all comes together. Pictured above is the swing-arm for the PRT vehicle that I have detailed in previous posts. Two pair of frameless torque motors (shown in red) are controlled by an accelerometer. These keep the vehicle in line with the normal gravitational forces. The accelerometer-torque motor combination can, in theory, eliminate any errant, sideways G forces. The idea is to emulate a free hanging system, without really being one. Why not just let it hang? Unbalanced or shifting loads, sudden gusts of side winds, or continual rocking back and fourth are all effects that need to be canceled. Other than that, a free hanging design has the wonderful effect of self-canceling motion-related forces from acceleration, deceleration, or turning. It’s like a bucket on a rope. No matter how you swing it around, water in the bucket won’t spill, because all gravity gets shifted toward the bottom of the bucket. With a vehicle-mounted accelerometer, any forces that it senses other than “downward” (in a relative sense) would cause the motors to lock up to arrest that movement, with the exception of a slight dampening, to control of the tendency to swing repeatedly like a pendulum.

I have mentioned in previous posts how the swing-arm design is extraordinarily safe, because rather than throwing occupants through the windshield in a head-on collision, the cab would swing forward, absorbing shock and transferring the direction of momentum so that it would essentially push the occupant into the seat instead of out of it. In this system, extreme forces will initially simply break the magnetic bond, allowing this forward swing. As the swing continues toward its apogee, however, the relative strength of the torque motors increases geometrically, applying ever greater braking force. Meanwhile the cab has gone from traveling forward to traveling upward, so it is additionally fighting gravity. All of this absorbs the force of impact without any mechanical damage to the vehicle. Combine this with bogey-to-bogey bumpers, and you have an extremely effective crash protection system. There are theoretical and mathematical ways demonstrate that split-second headways are not dangerous for PRT vehicles, but it’s pretty hard to beat coming out of a crash test damage-free to drive the point home.

Bottom line:

 You could set down a full cup of coffee and be whisked away at high speeds without spilling a drop. There is no reason why PRT can’t put any luxury car to shame in ride quality. An added bonus is unprecedented safety.  

114> In Search of a Cheap Lunch

One of the dirty little secrets of “green” electric cars is that the batteries have consumed a lot of energy and created considerable greenhouse gases before they are even installed in the vehicle. The real environmental cost of batteries goes all of the way back to the mines, where diesel fuel is used in large quantities to extract ore. Fossil fuel is an ingredient in the plastic battery cases. Refining the ore into metals and useful compounds often is extremely energy intensive. It takes fossil fuel to ship the materials to the battery maker and still more energy to assemble them. Of course then they need to be shipped to distributors or to the vehicle manufacturers.  More energy lost. The real energy costs should probably even include the energy budgets of all of the employees of all the companies involved insofar as those expenses are directly tied to the manufacturing process. (A miner’s gasoline costs getting to the mine, for example) Then there is the energy to move the electric vehicle’s extra battery weight, and eventually everything involved in the steps of removal and recycling. Then there is the fact that fossil fuel is burned by utilities to generate electricity to recharge the batteries, but let’s leave that one aside for the moment.

It is a reasonable to ask, “How much energy is actually saved over simply fueling vehicles with gasoline directly?” After all, gasoline has one thing going for it. The pipeline between the well and your car is very efficient. This is something to consider with other supposedly “green” products as well. Solar cells, for example, are notoriously energy intensive to make and, likewise, do not last forever. It’s like the oil used to make the fertilizer for the corn to make cleaner burning ethanol fuel. There is no such a thing as a “free lunch…”

I am certainly not saying that this stuff is a waste of time to pursue, but that it should be considered in the design considerations of nascent technologies like PRT. This applies to all design choices, not just whether to use batteries. In particular, I would point out that my call for a minimalist track profile is not purely for aesthetic reasons. We ought to be asking ourselves, “What is the greenest possible medium for moving from point A to point B within the urban/suburban environment?” This, as luck would have it, will also probably be the cheapest, and least objectionable to look at.

I submit that a power-carrying micro-monorail system is the greenest alternative, all things considered, unless we can invent a way to make ski lifts have branching routes and off-line stations. It should be as close to invisible as possible and use minimal materials. It should allow very flexible routing options including tight turns, steep slopes, etc. If it can’t be run somewhere, then people can’t use it. I further submit that it should be thick enough to be a “workhorse” that can take fast vehicles and span wide streets without shaking or sagging. Being too thin mandates closely spaced supports, which can also be a disadvantage. On balance, this trade-off puts me squarely in the Ed Anderson camp, size wise, of about a meter high and about two thirds of that in width. Long-time readers of this blog know how much I have agonized over these dimensions. One advantage to a self-leveling suspended vehicle, I would note, is that it can transition in elevation easily, so that the main routing need not be on the same level as the stations, enabling track that can be higher and more out-of-the-way, if that is what the community demands. We don’t want to cut trees to put PRT in.

PRT has been caught up in kind of a “Gee-wiz, I’m so futuristic!” mindset, even though there is nothing, in this age, futuristic about it. But it is still about being green. My last post was about how free-roaming robocars had co-opted the PRT moniker, and we’ve been having a lively debate on better names. I would just like to add this thought to that debate. If PRT is the physical equivalent of the internet, then the track is the equivalent of telephone wires or fiber optic lines. I say, “Let’s go broadband from the start!” Furthermore, let’s make that infrastructure as green as it can be. That means not being designed to be scrapped, but rather being modular, so it can be moved and reused rather than melted down; It should contain zero fodder for the landfill.  PRT, of the powered rail variety, isn’t just another green transportation alternative. It is the ultimate green alternative, bar none. (I’m not counting open-air or human powered vehicles) So maybe it should be presented that way, by the infrastructure, and not the vehicles or the difficult-to-explain operational characteristics.

After all, if you are promoting “elevated microrail transit,” then the whole rest of the PRT paradigm becomes implied. 

“Automated or involving lots and lots of drivers?”  - Automated.

“Make everyone wait behind a stopped vehicle or have off-line stations?” - Off-line. You get the idea.

In the end, being green, being efficient, and being prosperous are all one-in-the-same. Battery powered electric vehicles, though not a complete red herring, do start with substantial energy deficits that should not be ignored, so environmentalists should be made aware of the fact that powered rails are a much more efficient option.

Elevated, line-powered, mini-monorail transit: To me, it’s a no-brainer. There should be non-profits promoting it, universities developing vehicles for it, the works. It’s where we need to go. Delay in doing so is simply squandering resources, including our land, our raw materials, our fuel, our time, (spent in traffic) our time (spent building and unbuilding stuff) our (still not totally carbonated) atmosphere, and of course, our money. 

PS - If there’s anyone who can find a link to actual studies on the energy used in the life cycle of batteries I would be grateful if you would share… I have only found this paper, which is so outdated that it doesn’t even have figures for Lithium-based types. Finally, I would like to share this video, listed as “300 years of fossil fuels in 300 seconds”.

113> 2010 – Historic!

It has been said, “History is written by the victors.” Well it appears that the victor, in the war of competing PRT standards, is the ULTra/2Getthere steerable design. It is reasonable to assume that the systems will work as advertised… well enough to get some new contracts while continually improving. Therefore:

“PRT” now means automatic, driverless cars that travel on pavement. It doesn’t really matter anymore that PRT started out as something different. PRT is, and will be, a short-range automatic shuttle service for airports, campuses and the like. PRT will require snow plowing, battery charging and replacement, and will compete for space with cars, bicycles, golf carts, or pedestrians. Get used to it.

The fact that some of us have tried (or are still trying) to craft PRT as a next century transit solution is beside the point. That is not what PRT will be in the minds of most people a decade from now. As the folks at ULTra proudly point out, they have more people working on “PRT” in their company than all other PRT companies combined. To those of us who see PRT’s potential as a means to a more environmentally sustainable and efficient future, I can only say we had better retool our message, and do it fast.

Of course Masdar and Heathrow will have one beneficial effect. They will demonstrate the viability of computer-directed traffic management for small, automated vehicles. At least that is one hurdle out of the way…but honestly…was that outcome ever in doubt?

Our goal will be, then, to widen the discussion to include less pavement, not more, higher speeds, longer distances, more efficient ways to deliver power to the motors, much larger scale networks, etc. It will be hard to talk about it, though, because the term “PRT” has switched from being overly inclusive to being downright misleading. Now discussions about PRT deployment for a city will logically begin with providing ground-level right-of-way, similar to mapping out potential bicycle lanes. Discussions about elevating significant portions of this “track,” I predict, will end pretty quickly, as the logistics become apparent.

I think I like the term “microrail PRT.” (Not to be confused with “MicroRail,” a small gauge train from MegaRail Transportation Systems Inc.) It is reminiscent of the word “monorail” but obviously refers to something smaller. Remember, most people have no idea what PRT is, and it takes a while to explain. Say “microrail PRT” and they might get a picture of a tiny monorail in their heads. (or maybe something on a roller coaster track) Either way, it’s minimal and elevated. PERFECT!

I think PRT, as it was originally envisioned, was really a multipart invention. It synergistically combined the concept of many small computer-controlled vehicles with the concept of an electrically powered light rail system that could be economically run above street traffic. 

 

The cost of free-spanning, beam-like support structures, you see, is reduced exponentially (I’m using the term informally) as their weight bearing requirements are reduced. It’s like fleas jumping 200 times their body length. Some things are possible only at smaller scales. The lightest human-carrying vehicles are in a weight range where a single-beam track can be almost ridiculously cheap, especially when compared with the other options in densely populated areas.  It is true that access-for-the-disabled laws, or any scheme that enables capacity much beyond the average (110kg for autos) occupancy greatly increases track costs. That was a clear lesson of Raytheon’s PRT debacle. Nonetheless, carefully designed vehicles can still allow track costs that would enable a true transportation revolution… of that I am convinced. This is both the challenge and promise of PRT… er… microrail PRT…hmmm… microrail podcars?  Automated Microtrack Transit? Autonomous Minirail Transit?   HELP! We need a new name!                 

                                                   Happy New Year!

112> Interview with Santa

 

This just in!… After persistent rumors of a historic PRT deployment above the Artic circle, intrepid reporter Dan the Blogger goes to the North Pole to interview the big guy himself. That’s right, folks. Santa Claus himself has made a “ringing” endorsement of PRT technology at his northernmost campus…Here are excepts from the interview…

Dan the Blogger: “Santa, I must say I’m a bit surprised to see you adopt such cutting-edge technology. What made you turn to PRT?”

Santa: “Simple logistics Dan, I run a tight ship here. It’s a pretty big enterprise. We’ve got daily shipments coming in…one hell of a payroll…I can’t be wasting time stuck up to my keester in snow, trying to get the reindeer hitched-up. What’ya think? I should snowshoe all the way from the house to the workshop? And it’s worse for the elves, ya know…I used to have to issue periscopes and shovels or they’d get lost entirely!

Dan the Blogger: “It looks like you went with Vectus. Any particular reason why?”

Santa: “Have you ever tried to fit a reindeer in one of them “Skyweb” things? Damn uncomfortable for the reindeer, I’ll tell ya.”

Dan the Blogger: “Wow, it seems like you really put PRT to good use.”

Santa: “That ain’t the half of it, Dan. I even got track runnin’ between the warehouses and the docks.”

Dan the Blogger: “the docks? I thought you…”

Santa: What? Fly everything from here in a single night? What are you in? The 1860’s? The stuffs gotta be staged, ya know…I got warehouses all over. Plus I got ships comin’ in from China almost daily.”

Dan the Blogger: “I….I thought the toys were made by elves…”

Santa: “Chinese elves, Dan. “…do a wonderful job.”

Dan the Blogger: “My readers are probably wondering what you think of having the linear motors in the track instead of on board… I guess that probably saves weight and space as well, doesn’t it?

Santa: Don’t need motors, Dan. I just tie some cars together and put a reindeer in the front one. Works like a charm…. Hey, I gotta get back to it, ‘less you wanna see 5000 little girls get headless dollies…

Dan the Blogger: Thank you Santa, for this interv….

Santa: “yeah, yeah,.. Keep your stick on the ice, fella… oh, and Dan…”

Dan the Blogger:  “Yes, Santa…”

Santa: “You know damn well I can’t give you THAT kinda thing for Christmas…”

Dan the Blogger: “Yeah, I know…”

Dan the Blogger: MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE!

111> Capacity

For some time now I have advocated designing PRT for more than strictly CBD (Central Business District) use. Even though the “flight to the suburbs” in the U.S. has led to the need for urban renewal, and PRT would be a terrific tool for just that, the suburbs and highway fed satellite communities already exist, and need service too.

Companies wishing to get a PRT product to market do not have infinite time and development dollars, and their efforts necessarily must start from the basic building blocks of stations and loops. There is little point in promoting a vision that they are not yet prepared to follow though on. Unfortunately, a scaled-back, slow version of PRT is a lot like a scaled-back, slow version of the Internet. Eighty people being able to dial up a dozen sites won’t exactly make you thunderstruck by the possibilities. Yet that is a stage that was, at one point, a future vision. 

So here’s a little peak at a PRT “trunk” line, which, of course, can only happen when there are massive networks on either end to feed it. In this picture there are four tracks going in the same direction. Reversible lanes would offer up to five possible configurations, direction-wise.   

Here are some sample numbers. With a one second headway, and vehicles traveling at 60 mph, (88 ft. spacing) and the U.S. average of 1.2 passengers per vehicle, the capacity would be 17, 280 passengers per hour. Not bad for fitting over a strip of grass no wider than a residential driveway! With vehicles that can swing forward from sudden deceleration and bumpered bogies that clamp the track for extra stopping power in an emergency, still shorter headways and higher speeds can be expected without much technological challenge, especially if platoon strategies are employed. I think what is informative here is the capacity vs. the minor amount of steel and concrete needed to achieve it. By the way, with rubber wheels inside of a sound-insulated track casing, the system would be nearly silent.
                                    ______________________

It occurs to me that when I invent, I frequently start at an endpoint or finished product and work backwards toward the present. In a world of cause and effect, one can start at the desired effect and try to envision the causes that could create it.  This is why I have been advocating a standards-based open-source PRT solution. Can you imagine a single company ever being able to successfully scale up to this kind of volume? I can’t. The only way I can see it is if the track is a simple and standardized design, buildable by local firms, the control system is infinitely extensible, and multiple manufacturers can compete for business with certified, standards compliant vehicles. The funding needs to come out of the highway budget, and there needs to be a non-profit organization specifically tasked with organizing and fostering the public/private partnerships to make the whole thing happen, as well as developing and maintaining the standards. 

I do not rule out one company building a starter network and growing substantially from there. I just do not think that the design choices that are best for the company’s shareholders in the short or medium term are the best choices for PRT as a long-term technology. PRT can have extremely positive effects on society and the planet and still be the basis for very profitable businesses, but there is no reason to believe that a system designed to be profitable and saleable today will resemble the design that has the most transformative potential. In particular, I think current designs have traded away flexibility in a rush to have a market-ready product. These designs have limitations in terms of speed, station layout, turning radius, scalability, safety, track pitch, and a host of other issues. Once deployed, these limitations become set. If they later become burdensome, there is not necessarily any way to remedy the situation while maintaining compatibility with the legacy system and its installed infrastructure. 

P.S.   I have added a Table of Contents. Now you can enjoy one-click access to all 110 posts in the archive! Also, there have been no malware alerts connected with this site per se; The one reader who has reported a problem apparently only gets a warning from the use of his “Google Alerts” redirect function to this site and not the site itself, so I’m not going to worry about it.

110> Google's Robocars

First this note; I have recently been informed that this blog has twice triggered a virus alert for one reader. Has anyone other than this one reader had any malware alerts when visiting this site? I take this matter very seriously and have not been able to identify any malicious code. I have removed the “recent comments” feature from the sidebar, (again) since, in the Blogger forums, it has been suggested that such third-party “widgets” could be to blame, although no mention has been made of this (most popular) one specifically. Anyway, if you have received any alerts, please tell me about it, via email or the comments section. I am hoping it is a false alarm.

While I was out of touch last month, up at the cabin, an extraordinary thing happened that I just found out about. Apparently Google unveiled small fleet of driverless cars that had secretly logged 140 thousand miles of varied California driving with essentially no human assistance. It seems that the age of the Robocar is really here – at least as far as the science goes.

I am an unsuccessful contestant in a recent Google contest, which was about world-changing ideas. I can’t believe they picked the “Shweeb” concept over open-source, standards-based PRT. Now they have invested in Robocars. These people are no strangers to PRT, I just wish they would jump in with both feet. 

It seems to me that Google has “out-ULTra-ed” ULTra. After all, couldn’t Google’s modified Toyotas make the runs around Heathrow with ease? For that matter, it seems like they could just take you the rest of the way to your door. Back a few posts, I speculated that the real value proposition for a four-wheeled, pavement-driving designs like ULTra is really dualmode. Now it seems pretty clear that Google could clean their clock in that, and their present business too, if they wanted to.

In a way, my worst fears have come to pass. I believe that much (if not most) of the promise of PRT lies in the establishment of an alternative to roads, rather than making vehicles automatic. Regular roads are designed to carry huge loads, making them very expensive to elevate. Yet it is wildly inefficient to remain on the ground, where there are constant conflicts between people and cargo going different directions. There is also limited space. In most cities, well over 30% of the land is devoted to vehicles, either for roads or parking. This huge, paved landmass is an environmental nightmare, atmospherically, climatically, and hydrologically, not to mention a giant waste of very valuable real estate.

Because of the public’s resistance to having substantial overhead structures in front of their houses or businesses, it is essential for PRT track to have a minimalistic profile. This suggests something in the shape of a simple beam, and certainly not a wide, flat running surface, which would form an umbrella over the real estate below. (particularly at junctions)  Robocar makers may pay lip service to raised track, but practical realities say otherwise. Additionally, the removal of any way to “hook” into the track automatically makes travel in icy conditions something that just can’t be done at reasonable speeds.

With PRT being broadly defined to include four wheeled, steerable vehicles, advocates, (such as myself) are faced with the assumption, by many, that PRT is simply robocars on a designated roadway. This is defining PRT away from its original premise. Under the broadest definition the vehicles could even be gasoline powered. This is very, very far from the promise of PRT as envisioned by the early developers of such systems. No wonder people consider driverless cars as being an equally viable alternative to PRT. The PRT that they are familiar with has been stripped of most of its advantages. 

I just hope the good people at Google understand the unintended consequences that are inherent in their technology. Private driverless cars will encourage greater fuel consumption, because being free from driving will encourage other ways to pass the time, such as eating and drinking, watching TV, doing office work, etc. The resultant mobile office/living room will mean bigger, not smaller, vehicles. The comfortable and productive ride will encourage longer, not shorter commutes. It will encourage more pavement, not less.

Having robotic cars, especially with special lanes, may seem tantamount to a true PRT system to many, and this fact endangers PRT adoption. You can’t morph private cars on roads into PRT. PRT is meant to replace the need for more cars and roads. It is, at its core, efficient public transportation, which, in turn, encourages the building of truly efficient communities, leading to reduced environmental impact and greater prosperity.

Robocars will only help alleviate traffic, without cutting down on driving. It will make private car ownership even more desirable in emerging countries like India and China. This will eventually encourage even MORE driving and consequently MORE sprawl, just as faster highways have ended up doing across the U.S.  And mark my words, if they are privately owned, they will be BIG, powerful and very comfortable. I’ll take the camper!

109. Harnessing "Anti-Gravity" for PRT Control

Recently astute reader Ken MacLeod suggested that we consider certain computer-generated steering behaviors for merging PRT vehicles, and included this link.When I looked at them, (He specifically referred to the queuing example) I was first reminded of a thought I expressed in post 41, where I touched on the possibility of flocking or schooling behavior to help alleviate traffic, although I really didn’t know what it was called at the time. And so I responded by saying that the behaviors seemed more suited to traffic management. Now I get it, however.

Flocking (and the other related behaviors) is actually extremely relevant to PRT because of how it is generated. It is the interaction of imaginary gravity and antigravity between objects in motion. Specifically, it happens when there is very strong close-range anti-gravity and weaker, longer-range gravity. The gravity creates a group or “flock” and the antigravity keeps the “birds” from hitting each other. A favorite demonstration of this is “Boids,” which, as it sounds, supposedly came from the word “birds” combined from someone’s strong (New York area?) accent. In this example, the programmer periodically changes the parameters, (number of fish) leading to stronger schooling or flocking (gravity) forces. Anti-gravity is localized to the area immediately around each fish.

When we drive our cars there is a similar effect going on, except that it is highly linear. The anti-gravity part is dominant and stems from driver reluctance to follow a vehicle too closely. The closer you get, the faster and harder you are likely to apply the brake. When you follow at a safe distance, you are liable to maintain an equilibrium between braking and accelerating. When you see the gap getting larger, you are free to apply the gas petal, discounting other factors like speed limit. In auto traffic, there is no appreciable gravity effect, however, as there is no benefit to clumping cars together, (with the possible exception of convoys of speeders.)

Note that the “anti-gravity” at extremely close range (like actually touching) can be set to infinity. Therefore brakes are applied to maximum extent possible to avoid touching bumpers. In PRT, it seems that something similar is almost unavoidable. The question is whether collision avoidance through some kind of proximity sensors should be an add-on for redundancy or emergencies only, or integrated directly into the control processes.

As I mentioned in the beginning of this post, it has been suggested that such algorithms could be used in PRT for merging as well as headway control. In such a scenario a computer could consider where, in a line of vehicles, the merging vehicle would be expected to eventually fit, and then gradually apply more and more anti-gravity to that spot. Thus it is like a ghost vehicle slowly materializing and repelling the vehicles around it. It increases this short-range anti-gravity toward mathematical infinity until it has forced a space for the merging vehicle. This is an interesting approach because all decision-making can be localized to the vehicles involved. It also doesn’t need too much or particularly fast communications. Each vehicle simply responds to the proximity-induced repelling forces while trying to maintain forward speed.

One problem with this approach, however, is that it lacks intelligence in the choosing of where, in a line of vehicles, a merging vehicle should be placed. For example, what if a single merging vehicle is near the front of a group of 15 vehicles with plenty of space in front of the group. It seems like it shouldn’t split them up, but rather speed up and merge in front them, if there is time. At least it should delay as few vehicles as possible. But then again perhaps the anti-gravity could be set so that the group collectively repels the single car into such a choice. Or perhaps the group is self-dispersing, because the anti-gravity’s range is sufficient to “de-clump” the 15 vehicles in the first place.

In such a system there is no problem controlling traffic in the event that a section of the system becomes “over-booked.” The traffic would simply slow down. In an earlier post I outlined a control method based on precisely synchronized timing, where vehicles could “book” a split-second “reservation” to go through a merge point without conflict. The system begins with fuzzy time estimates at the point of departure, and but reschedules with more and more precision as the vehicle nears a merge-point and utilizes track markers to time itself.  Such a system has automatic traffic control; it can be set to never allow overbooking of a route. It becomes more problematic, however, as fast and heavy traffic pushes the limits of communications and reduces the margin for error. Perhaps the two methods can be combined. Thanks again, Ken. You’ve reminded me again that many heads are better than one!

108> Putting a Foot Down for PRT

Here is omething to think about…  As I have previously pointed out, because of the boom in highway projects started in the 50’s, cities in the U.S. tend to be spread out.  Instead of one central business district, there are usually many little ones.  To get people to leave the car at home is to get people to travel many miles without it, and there is no predictable direction of travel, just the likelihood that where they are going isn’t far from a freeway.  Therefore I have tried to accommodate this need with my designs.

Building PRT along freeways follows a different logic than many of the systems that are out there today.  It is like creating “worm-holes” between the more traditional routing schemes.  Naturally the structural requirements are different for both track and vehicles.

The track can be much cheaper as I will show.

Urban track must not be too visually imposing and must be routed to minimize distance between stations.  This generally means one-way.  There is also a lot of interference of all kinds in terms of track support placement.  This includes driveways, corners, underground utilities, telephone poles, signs, and traffic issues during construction.  Freeway following track, on the other hand, can have more frequently placed posts, which means shorter (less expensive) spans.  It can have two-way traffic supported by each post. There is less of the double track associated with stations and “Y” interchanges.  (With two-way traffic this necessitates up to four tracks, something that would create an unwanted umbrella effect, hence the general adoption of one-way urban designs.) 

Freeway following track represents a real chance to highlight one of the advantages of PRT, which is the limited weight of the vehicles.  Freeways must support 18 wheel trucks, and this sturdy construction is overkill for commuting purposes.   When a highway becomes congested, the call goes out to estimate the cost of another lane.  Each new lane is expected to absorb a certain number of cars for a certain number of dollars. PRT vehicles can be substituted for cars in this equation.  I recently read a Houston Metro study, which was an evaluation of a HOV lane running parallel to a section of I-10 (the main East-West interstate across the southern U.S.) The project was evaluated as a success primarily on the number of vehicles diverted from the main road.  As most of us know, one lane of PRT equals many lanes of ordinary highway.  It would be hard to make such a clear-cut case in a typical PRT route of convoluted loops.  Of course PRT vehicles are not free to the city, like cars, which are supplied by the commuters.  But autos are not revenue producers either, unless it is a toll road.  With PRT there is also no increase in traffic congestion on either end of the highway leg.  It may be a complicated cost-benefit analysis, but I think it’s less so than most of the other route proposals I have seen.  They generally look like nightmares of compromise and contentious litigation.

And so I have devoted some time to the problem and have come up with this.  In the picture above, the need for excavating has been eliminated by creating a support structure with a “foot.”  It occurred to me that the weight of concrete traffic dividers could be utilized along with a wide base to create a system that could be placed in the breakdown lanes.  Such a structure could not be made with just concrete and rebar because the edges must taper to nothing, so that vehicles’ tires can roll onto it freely.  Therefore there must be some clever integration of steel plate into the design. In addition to its shear weight, (about a ton per running foot) the base can be further immobilized by pinning it into holes drilled into the concrete.

Such track could be installed cheaply and rapidly by being pre-fabricated and trucked to the job site.  Sections of the concrete lane-divider would be interlocking or connected by steel splines, so that individual sections cannot be tipped or moved by impact.

Hopefully I will be able to figure out a realistic cost estimate in the near future, since estimating labor and materials appears to be a pretty straightforward job. I do not think I would go with the previously shown truss design, though, because it is for long spans, not cheap and easy construction. Anyway, my guess is that we will be pleasantly surprised.

107> An App for that.

In the world of TCP/IP, and even Ethernet, and especially any wireless version of either, there are transmission delays that limit what such technologies can do for synchronizing PRT vehicles. That is not to say that such delays cannot be overcome. The problem is that off-the-shelf solutions are only just emerging. Building an IP-based PRT network infrastructure that doesn’t rely on proprietary techniques is, for the time being, still fairly complicated.

Modern computer networking involves lots and lots of flexibility, security, compatibility and legacy issues. After all, computers are used for all sorts of things that were developed over time by many players. Anything resembling a standard communication procedure needs to address many unknowns. Remarkably, the present systems are designed to handle messages of unknown length, coming in at unknown speed, which will be forwarded along an unknown route. The original designers of these systems wisely prioritized accuracy and completeness of the data being sent over speed, and the protocols reflect this. Hence these systems (as they analyze and sort bits of information like a postal worker sorting letters) produce the delays we refer to as latency.

Luckily PRT vehicle control is not the only application that requires minimal network latency. Two others come to mind. The first is industrial processes. Machinery must often interact with split-second precision. The ubiquity of Ethernet as a way to network computers has created a market for methods to achieve “real-time” process control using the same equipment. One interesting open-source project worth exploring is RTnet, which has advanced to the point of having suites of development tools written for it.

A second area driving change is VOIP. (Voice Over Internet Protocol)  You see, VOIP cannot tolerate latency. Unlike the data packets that will re-assemble into an Email or even a streaming movie, the packets that comprise your telephone conversation must arrive in order and on time. (relatively speaking)  With new “smart phones” appearing daily, higher quality VOIP is becoming essential. Getting there involves a reversal of the previous priority of completeness and accuracy. For example, if a split-second part of a conversation is lost or scrambled, it should just be tossed out, leaving a click or silent spot in the audio. In ordinary TCP/IP, the system would detect the damaged data and ask that it be resent, even if it came in two seconds late. The bottom line is VOIP is forcing a rethink of this and all of the other latency producing steps used in communication and networking. Furthermore, telephones are inherently mobile. When a person travels down the highway talking on the phone he is forcing the network to find a seamless way to “hand-off” his call from one antenna (network access point) to another. This is similar to the problem PRT designers face if they want to minimize the number of vehicles in any subnet and want to minimize the number of hops any transmission must take.

Telephone standards have been referred to in terms of which “generation” they come from. We are coming to the end of the 3G era. Aspects of 4G are already appearing. Whereas some 3G systems had legacy analog capabilities for better phone reception, 4G is 100% packet based. Previously cellular carriers had little incentive to adhere tightly to standards such as the various flavors of IEEE 802, preferring to compete with proprietary protocols. The convergence of corporate data networks, internet, smart phones and the like will surely lead to more “Plug-and-Play” solutions for mobile users interacting with private networks. And that means more standardization between carriers. And, speaking of IEEE 802.xx, the next generation of standards (such as 802.20) looks pretty awesome. But what is “state of the art” now?

There is a lot of activity surrounding the 802.16e standard, which is being commercialized as “WiMAX.” (successor to WiFi) Supposedly latencies are in the in the 40 ms range, but I’m skeptical as to whether real world performance is anything like that. I assume, for example that that is a one-way number, which would double in a round-trip message that included a confirmation. But I am no expert. 

I also am not sure what, specifically, can be done with a guaranteed round-trip transmission in, say, 50 ms that can’t be done with a turnaround time of a second or more. It seems to me that for real split-second control issues, 50 ms is still an eternity. It is possible that real-time Ethernet (like RT net) could be adapted for “leaky cable” but that seems like a lot of effort for the hypothetical portion of the PRT control that needs 10ms to one second access times. After all, there is still direct sensing and switching, which is essentially instantaneous. I guess it would be worthwhile to take a good look at the specific maneuvers that a PRT vehicle must make in terms of actual time requirements, from control signal to electro-mechanical response, before getting too far in terms of favoring one technology over another. More specifically, I question whether sub-second communications are really necessary for pre-merge maneuvers. This question leads to track layout and capacity considerations as much as anything else. Should vehicles be packed so closely together and run so fast between closely spaced merge points as to necessitate split-second communications? It seems to me that a little traffic management and prudent track design could go a long way toward allowing a bit of latency. And there is also my often-stated preference for putting more control at the vehicular level, limiting the need for top-down control.  Meanwhile, technology marches on. Maybe PRT should run on the Android OS!  

106> Simple Circuits

For those of you expecting, from the last post, for me to explain my method of requiring only a byte-sized communications to perform a merge, I’m afraid I have to retract that claim. What seemed, at first glance, to be a two-bit digital message is more accurately a couple of blips in an analogue signal, because the timing of the blips is part of the message. It is a moot point, though, because from a transmission point of view it is much smaller and simpler than preparing any sized packet, the usual way of sending it in digitized form.

I want to reiterate that I am not trying to reinvent the wheel. Some variant of ordinary digital networking technology is certainly the way to go as a primary system. I believe, however, that the following examination is worth doing for a number of reasons. For one thing, it forces us to look squarely at the details of the task at hand, which gives direction to what future PRT software and network structure might look like. Secondly, it relates more directly to the kind of systems that have gained regulatory approval in the past, such as trains or people movers. It is possible that it might be simpler to gain approval for a system that is built on top of the same kind of circuit-switched system logic that older, approved systems use. Thirdly, if there will be a back-up system, it would seem logical to have something dissimilar enough to be easily and completely partitioned from the primary. Lastly, this blog has some role to play as an educational resource. Exploration of the problems of control and safety can be simplified by doing so in an allegorical way, since most readers are not well versed in modern telecommunications methodologies. All that being said… 

 

This illustration shows the information accumulated over a few seconds by two proximity sensors positioned at corresponding locations on the two tracks leading to an upcoming merge point. The vertical lines represent units of time and the numbered “blips” represent PRT vehicles. In an animated version of this illustration everything would be traveling right to left, so that information gathered on the left of the picture is older than the information on the right. Imagine it like a window looking out on a highway with the traffic moving right to left, and a snapshot has been taken as the fourth vehicle crosses the midpoint of the field of vision.

Here a reference voltage drops with the breaking of a beam, although other schemes could be used. In this example the vehicles mark twice, once at the front of the vehicle and once at the back. This enables the calculation of velocity. This, then, gives all of the necessary information required to determine if the sampled vehicles will have a conflict at the merge point, and what routines can be used to solve it. Additional monitoring points can be used to create a complete picture of traffic, although from any particular vehicle’s point of view very little of that picture is actually relevant. The picture above represents the “view” of vehicle 4.

Below shows the required broadcast areas for such a system. Traveling through such an area gives each vehicle a chance to construct a representation like the illustration above by “listening” to the traffic cross the sensors in real time. Each vehicle would have a different “picture.”  I would suggest that sending the data directly in such a raw form through dedicated channels, fibers or circuits might well make more sense than digitizing it on the spot and directing it through a multicast addressing protocol, especially as a back-up system. In such a scheme normal attenuation (fading of the signal as distance from the transmission source increases) could limit the communications to the relevant vehicles. Note, however, that no communication between vehicles is actually required. If they all have the same information they would, in theory, move independently in the “faith” that neighboring vehicles would be moving as expected as well. This would be highly risky but for the fact that some form of headway distance monitoring is already required as part of a collision avoidance safety system.

I dislike, as is well known, the notion of complicating the track with sensors and controllers as a general rule, and this scheme doesn’t change that. But one can never weigh any trade-off without examining both sides. This round goes to the wayside control model, although a vehicle-based equivalent is doable. For example, the vehicles themselves could “sound-off” as they pass a marker or RFID tag, and a pair of non-interfering RF channels could be used in a leaky feeder system. (I believe I have been too worried about “cross-talk” with a leaky feeder system. There should be plenty of radio bands available that can coexist on one or more cables.)

 

On a personal note, I am back from New Hampshire, and will get to my Email backlog very soon. Besides making a portable shower stall that snaps together like Styrofoam Legos and a solar hot water heater, I made good progress on this 14x18’ experimental structure that will be a garage/shop/storage building and a place to hang an electrical meter. (My cabin is too far from the road for electric service, but I really need my power tools)  I have been a busy boy! I wish I had cleaned the site a bit before taking the picture, but it’s all clean and partially sheathed now. By the way, what’s shown is less than $1600. into the project, including everything – labor, delivery, and materials. (including the 25 tons of gravel under the insulated, pre-plumbed slab) I should have it completely dried in for under $8. sq. ft. Now that’s sweat equity!… and my excuse for posting so infrequently over the past 7 weeks. I thought you all might like to know where I’ve been.

105> A Voice from the Woods!

I think it is high time we talk about control with a bit more specificity. Here are some thoughts to ponder.

It seems to me that if everything else fails, PRT vehicles should still be capable of getting to the next station, at a reduced, uniform speed, without hitting each other. This implies a certain amount of autonomy. It also seems to me that PRT should certainly have full and speedy Internet, and also be networked for traffic management purposes.

As far as control goes, it gets a little more complicated. Because of safety concerns, certain aspects must be virtually instantaneous. One would not, for example, want to have to call a central server to suggest that a collision is imminent and an appropriate braking routine is needed.

 

Let’s take a look at who needs to talk to whom. Fig. 1 shows the obvious case of vehicle A needing to communicate with leading and tailing vehicles. What is not as obvious is that since this zone of needed communications is constantly moving, a centralized control system has no built-in way to keep the relationship between the vehicles special. A zone-based hierarchy (zone controller) would limit the number of vehicles that are communicating to a better number. (note: It is quite possible that an off-the-shelf Linux-based router can be hacked (in the firmware) to make a serviceable zone controller, something that would address most of my previously stated concerns) However that is all a bit off-topic, because I still do not think one is needed.

In Fig. 2, we address the matter of merges. Here I have used the same red zone to indicate where instantaneous communication is most important, with the blue arrows indicating the lines of communication. Here again, there is a special relationship between a small number of vehicles, and this relationship persists until there is an interchange. In this picture we have four little networks that must have very fast communications. It is not clear to me whether communications with any entity outside of this network needs to be particularly fast.

Here’s where all of this leads. First, as a last resort backup, (hurricanes, terrorists, sunspots, earthquakes, plane crashes) the lines of communication shown in blue must persist, or vehicles will be stranded. This is a big no-no if there is no easy way to exit the vehicle. Also it seems probable that regulatory approval would be easiest to approach with a slow, “failsafe” mode first. So… If we assume that we want such an autonomous mode underlying the rest then what “rest” are we talking about?

I, for one, have not identified any communications other than those shown in blue that need to be particularly fast at all. If that is the case, why not have the rest be internet-based, and take advantage of the existing cellular or satellite infrastructures? Such a scheme would isolate the high-speed from the safety portion of the problem in a way that would seem logical.

The fact is that the lines of communication that we are talking about are not even particularly well suited to normal TCP/IP communications in the first place. If such a task were easy, the military would certainly like to know, for such a thing would greatly enhance battlefield strategies. . Requiring ad hoc “mesh” networks are not great way to simplify a PRT system, in my opinion. It reminds me of my friends daughter, who likes to “text” with her friends, even when they are in the same room, and could simply talk instead. Maybe a better example is a fire alarm that alerts your smart phone instead of making it’s own audible signal.

Surgeons fix things with scalpels, carpenters with wood and nails. Is it possible there is a little of that going on here with my IT savvy readers? After all, working systems have been around since before TCP/IP was invented, based on direct switching and signaling. And, by the way, there is precedent for this in the form of current railroad practice. I’m not so sure where we stand on the other, in terms of gaining regulatory approval.

Don’t get me wrong. I believe that the last 10% or more of optimal throughput will absolutely require an advanced dedicated network infrastructure. This future capability must be baked in from the start. I believe though, that we must be careful not to lump real-time control issues (collision avoidance) with traffic management, which can easily have latencies of many seconds without consequence. I have analyzed what exactly would have to be communicated on those little blue arrows and it is amazingly little – less than a byte each way. If I told you how, though,.. well, I’d have to think of something else to write about next time!

104> Pondering Infrared

A few months ago, I taped my TV remote onto the side of an acrylic rod and covered the connection in foil. Then I pointed one end of the rod at my TV and became one of only a handful of people worldwide to use intra-bedroom fiber optics to turn on The Late Show. This demonstrates a couple of things. First, that you know you need help with your tinkerer addiction when you just happen to have cast acrylic rod hanging around the house. Secondly, it showed that you can transmit data into the SIDE of a fiber optic media and have it be readable coming out the end.

In Ed Anderson’s PRT designs he uses “leaky-cable” to send and receive messages from the vehicles to a zone-controller. Leaky-cable is essentially coaxial cable with slits in the covering that lets radio signals “leak” in and out. This technology was originally used to communicate in mines but is increasingly being used to extend wireless “hot-spots” such as in hotels or dorms since running the cable down the hall is all that is required to give connectivity to the computers in all of the rooms on either side.

Unfortunately these products are designed to broadcast and receive over a wide area, usually up to 30 meters from the cable. That creates the issue is cross-talk. Inside of a PRT track, these products are shouting instead or whispering, since the signal only needs to extend a couple of centimeters. Putting a backup or any second cable won’t work, since each would broadcast and receive from the other. Anderson used time-division multiplexing to let vehicles take turns using the one cable. This is apparently a workable arrangement, but lets just say it is not exactly a modern LAN without some major tweaking. It certainly seems, in theory, that the “volume” could be turned way down and some kind of shielding might be used to enable a second cable (to get more bandwidth) but this is just speculation.

So I have been wondering about infrared. Have you seen “side glow” fiber optic cable? It looks like a flexible neon light. It is the direct optical equivalent to leaky cable. One thing about it is that there is no issue with cross-talk if the cables are shielded. It turns out that before RF wireless connectivity became the standard, there were quite a few infrared products out there for computer networking. Now I can’t really find any, although apparently it is sometimes used for financial and other confidential data because it cannot be hacked into from outside the room, since it relies on “line-of-site” between the transmitter and receiver.

There is one fundamental realization that got me thinking. Since an infrared transmitter, such as my TV remote, is essentially just an LED, (like a light bulb) why be bound to using just one? Why not have, say, 100 all blinking as one? It would be a bit like sending Morse code by plugging and unplugging a string of Christmas lights. Clearly this would be a simple way to broadcast over a wide area. What about the other direction? Can there be multiple, distributed receivers as well?

I am a bit out of my field here, but it seems to me that with Ethernet there is a designated wire from any computer to a router or switch. Could a track-based receiver(s) plug a passing vehicle into an LAN without the lengthy discovery protocol? After all, to the network, it wouldn’t be apparent that different passing vehicles were sending the data. I think the limit is 256 such nodes. I guess there are some Mac or IP address hurdles.

I have to say that this is a somewhat arbitrary exercise at this point. I probably should be starting with a fine-grained examination of exactly what needs to be communicated when and to whom. Speaking in generalities is just not cutting it. Form needs to follow function, not philosophy or “rules of thumb.” As far as rapid communication goes, it would be very rare indeed for it to involve many more than a dozen vehicles, and they are in a predictable positional relationship. (equidistant from a merge) Those positional relationships need to be the starting point for designing any network, as well as firmware and software. I’ll try and explore these more next time.

103> A little something...

Well folks, life is very good up here on the land, but not real good for working on PRT. Fact is, I haven’t even been answering emails. “Bear” with me, for I’ll only be at this for a few more weeks. In the meantime here is a picture I dug up that you might find interesting. It shows a forklift, overhead crane and elevator that could run on a PRT like operating system. Apparently similar devices are already used to warehouse frozen goods, saving forklift drivers from the cold.  
 They are closing the library now...Life without  the internet...try it!

102> The PRT Business Model

Hello from the “off the grid” New Hampshire! As some of you know, I often get away to my cabin here, where it is, to put it mildly, rustic. Well, it’s always something. Now the folks here say they can’t give me a license plate without a “911 address.” That takes 5 weeks. That means my car (with expired Kentucky tags) is illegal to drive, which means I can’t keep its battery well charged, (I have no AC on site) which means everything that runs AC or is rechargeable has to be kept to an absolute minimum. I am building a garage, you see, near the road, which will provide a gateway for such utilities. If you can call it a garage… Actually it is an experimental structure, sort of a pregnant “A-frame” with a curved roof. It relies on the strength of curves and of laminations, and can be built single-handedly, even by a 56 year old. (me) It should cost less than half of a traditional structure. Anyway, the point is that the computer I am writing this on is one such energy drain, and is competing with my rechargeable tools. So I might not be around a lot, blog-wise. I am currently at the library, but that an option best suited for rainy days, and it is beautiful outside today.

Now on to some thoughts on PRT. The real obstacle to PRT is, and has always been, the business model. Without a lot of political will, it is hard to get the government funds needed, and that political will cannot exist while there is fear, uncertainty and doubt. Two “Fortune 500” companies have abandoned PRT after sinking millions into it for that very reason.

It is not the track or the stations, for steel companies and builders would love the contracts. After all, they will get paid regardless. Vehicle builders would love it too, although they have a bigger, longer lasting stake. But building vehicles (warranties included) is what they do. Everybody, so far, is within their core competencies, and structuring a deal would be similar to what they do every day.

Not so control. This is a little manufacturing, a little maintenance, a long-term service…
Business-wise, it’s a real mess. PRT companies can stand up bravely all day long and explain how they will always be there, but no one is going to listen. Bankruptcies are just part of the game these days, and all that leaves a city with is a bunch of useless hardware.

It stands to reason then, that the matter should be attacked directly. What can be done to get a handle on this “vendor-dependency issue? What I have endeavored to do, as a first step, is to make the problem smaller. In my last post, I detailed a time-based control system that could reside largely in cyberspace. It could be hosted by almost anybody. It could handle most traffic management and fare collection, things that are not affected by the inherent latency of the internet. On the other end, I have strived to give more control to the vehicles themselves. After all, not bumping into each other seems like a task well suited for those vehicles directly involved.

I do not claim that a global internet-based traffic management system along with autonomous cars is all that is required. As traffic density increases, the ability of vehicles to act with any kind of autonomy will all but vanish, just as it does in auto traffic. The combination I have described is inadequate for the job of high speed, high density, minimal headway traffic. But this does not change the fact that predicating a control architecture on the health of an untested company is a serious, probably fatal, drawback. At least with the combination I suggest, if the PRT company goes under and no longer provides any parts, training or support, the system would still work. Just not optimally. This would give the city some breathing room while they search for a fix. After all, the problem with PRT companies is that they are irreplaceable.

So, to recap, my objective is to structure a PRT construction and control architecture that cannot leave a city stranded, or come as close to that objective as possible. This may not make for the prettiest software code or networking structure, but it is, in my view, the only way forward. At the very least, we should all be looking at exactly what can be done to structure the control aspect of PRT into simple, definable businesses with ordinary equipment requiring minimal special training. What equipment, where? How many people? Is there scheduled maintenance? Replacement? What communications gear does the track need? Who will install that? You get the point. If we can divide and conquer this stuff, we will be a long way ahead.